Over the years, since the first nuclear test was conducted by Pakistan, there are many theories and concepts that are envisioned and discussed upon Indo-Pak rivalry mostly based on Nuclear Weapons.
This article is an attempt to understand the logic behind the war, an insight of ideologies as cause and what to anticipate in the means that can be employed.
It’s a Dispute of Ideology not about Land or Boundary:
The mind-set of the Pakistani Military planners is pretty indulged in the religious beliefs and that are embedded with hard core Salafism. There are many mercenaries that are trained by Pakistan by luring them into acceptance of Jannat and the hoors.
In a few articles over the net we can see a lot of believers of the Ghazwa-E-Hind from Pakistan. They align the war to their ideological fantasies, leaving the rationality.
Would Pakistan launch a war?
Pakistan has a tendency of giving denials before action upon its adversaries. Over the past few days after surgical strikes we could see a series of denials which match very much with the denials they have made about their regulars during Kargil conflict.
Striking with similarity, we have expected Pakistan not attempt a transgression in Kargil due to the conventional advantages we have, however Pakistani generals are prone to be carried away by their beliefs of ‘grace of god’ than to think on rational terms.
Tussle between Political and Military class of Pakistan
Seemingly so true to believe (but not in reality). There is an unfolding drama in Pakistan to show up their civilian/democracy face just to garner international support they lost.
This entire storm in the tea cup will just show that at the end of it there is an aggression that Pakistan is planning to strike upon us in surprise. There can be a planned attack through their proxies in any of our cities exactly while they would hand over one among the designated terrorists over to us or maybe US.
Or there could be plans of multi front in one go, both with China-Pakistan fronts at the same time while proxies would go rampant in parallel.
What means can likely to be employed?
There is a need to look out for following likely tactics which are possible to be employed, especially if another rouge and powerful helps them.
1) Machete yielding attacks
2) Paragliders or small drones based attacks
3) Truck run overs
4) Communal riots
5) Hijacks or 9/11 style attacks
6) Kidnap of high profile political opponent.
7) Cyber war or misinformation spreads like that of NE scare, couple of years ago
8) Intrusions from Nepal or Bangladesh Borders(any other border than west)
9) Dirty Bombs or Mini nukes through suicide bombers
10) Inflicting damage upon existing vital installations
1) Use of Chemo logical weapons(especially post their increased relation with Turkey)
2) Opening the strikes with nuclear weapons, Submarine launched
3) Moles implanted in the institutions creating Havoc
With growing Anti-National rants from Universities, Political institutions and Media houses within India, there is a likely chance for situation during the war to take upon an ugly turn leaving us in midst of unprecedented and unexpected political situations.
War needs to be understood well, be prepared well in order to be fought well.
Karthik Gunda is an avid defence enthusiast and a great FAN of IDN. This piece on India's Pakistan paradigm of war was written exclusively for IDN. Views express are his own.